I am happy to announce that I have accepted an opportunity to join Ruby Carat to become an author and editor at Cold Fusion Now. In addition, I will be helping her with moderation and other duties on the site. The cold fusion story is expanding so rapidly and in so many different directions that it has become increasingly difficult for either one of us to keep track of the many facets of the story. Perhaps this is true more so for myself than for Ruby, as Cold Fusion Now has many intelligent and talented people contributing on a regular basis. These individuals include patent attorney David French. Cold Fusion Radio’s James Martinez, the ubiquitous and knowledgeable Brad Arnold, filmmaker Eli Elliot, and occasionally even Dr. Edmund Storms. And that’s just for starters. Click here to see more of the Cold Fusion Now Crew. With this group of talent to work with, I would have been foolish to pass up the opportunity to come on-board.
Of course, I would be remiss if I didn’t also thank those who have contributed to e-Cat Site over the past year, most notably Tom Baccei and Mr. Johannes Van den Bogaert. Also a shout out to Ms. Sojourner Soo, the free-energy free spirit who pops in from time to time on various sites to fight the good fight. She was kind enough to provide the first article at e-Cat Site.
Of course, e-Cat Site would have been nothing without the regular readers and commenters. I hope you all will come on over to Cold Fusion Now and check out the articles and resources available. You will not be disappointed. I know many who have been following the story make the rounds and have your favorite sites for cold fusion news and updates, so there is some overlap amongst readership for both Cold Fusion Now and e-Cat Site. But let’s be honest, we all have our favorite sites for one reason or another. I hope the readers of Cold Fusion Now will welcome my input, and I hope the faithful of e-Cat Site will now become regular readers and commenters on Cold Fusion Now.
Ruby Carat and I are committed to bring you the most accurate and up-to-date coverage that we are capable of. As I write this, Cold Fusion Now is undergoing a number of upgrades to ensure that the site is accessible, readable and informative. There are new features and upgrades in the works as well. We both believe that cold fusion is ready to soar to new heights, both in terms of the state of the art of the technology and the coverage that will ensue. We want to make sure that we are ready for the added traffic that this will undoubtedly bring.
As for e-Cat Site, for right now it will remain open as an archive of the happenings of the last year, as well as a resource regarding cold fusion history. It is no lenr-canr.org, but I have made a conscious effort to provide enough background history for people to understand what cold fusion is and how it has progressed, especially over the last 20 years. I initially started the site as an information resource for friends and acquaintances regarding cold fusion. Many of them were as stunned as I, and I’m sure many of you, that cold fusion had never been truly debunked and in fact was being taken seriously by a growing number of people. Much of this interest was spurred by Andrea Rossi’s e-Cat, for which the site is named. I subsequently started writing articles and opened the site for comments so I could narrate the story from my own perspective, devoid of the constant sneering of the closed-minded and committed opponents. However, now I think the story has outgrown the intent and scope of the site, and it is now time to move on. It will probably be accessible for another year, or until such time we can move content over to Cold Fusion Now. However, there will be no new articles or news updates posted.
As mentioned above, I will also be helping moderate CFN. Just like at e-Cat Site, I welcome healthy debate. Disagreements are to be expected, especially when discussing something as complex as cold fusion. However, comments need to remain respectful of the subject matter, the site, and, most importantly, the person to which the comment is directed. Comments consisting solely, mostly or repeatedly of insults, taunts and inflammatory language are not acceptable and will be deleted, likely without warning. Repeated attempts to post such comments will be result in being banned. This is not the site to be contentious for sport. There are other sites that allow such behavior to go on unabated but this is not one of them.
Once again, I welcome the opportunity to join Cold Fusion Now, and I look forward to working with Ruby and the crew. I think we are in for some very exciting times ahead.
Cold Fusion Now website may be in and out of visibility as we work on changes to the program files and server. We also will be changing web hosting services to a more affordable and responsive company.
We continue to evolve and prepare for the next wave of interest that, in our opinion, will be even bigger than the Rossi Wave, the huge influx of people brought to new energy awareness by Andrea Rossi‘s public demonstrations of the E-Cat.
Economic failures, ecological collapse and the end of the oil age are converging in one big clusterfuck, and there is nowhere else to run.
Marshall McLuhan, one of the great thinkers of the twentieth century, taught that as much as we shape our tools, technology shapes our minds, and we believe that
the biggest changes in the human mental imprint will occur with a new energy technology that also has the power to free peoples around the world from the scourge of poverty, pollution and war.
It is our function to create the awareness that cold fusion/LENR/LANR/quantum fusion is not only real, but developing at an ever accelerating pace. Providing a platform for the voices of new energy scientists and speaking to the public about ultra-clean energy from cold fusion is our mission. I recently took a trip up to Northern California and here are some highlights.
I first stopped at Heinz Klostermann‘s lab in Palo Alto, California where he and his partner Tamerlane Sanchez are developing a version of the Papp engine. It was a full day tailing Mr. Klostermann here and there through the heart of Silicon Valley, finally getting a small demonstration of the engine that runs on air.
You read right – an engine that runs on air.
Look for that video in mid-October (after Iraj Parchamazad‘s interview of his work with zeolites).
After the Klostermann visit, I couldn’t leave Palo Alto without stopping by Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm of Mark Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. You may remember Mark Andreessen as the young man who gave us Netscape back in the early nineties.
He and his pal Ben have lots of resources that they invest in forward-thinking projects, companies, and industries of the future. I had hoped to get an appointment with the pair and relay the many opportunities available in the field of condensed matter nuclear science.
Unfortunately, they were both out of the office on vacation, but I managed to get an email address for further contact, and left two envelopes containing my card and Cold Fusion Now stickers with the lovely secretary who said she’d deliver them personally.
I took a picture of the library in the Andreessen Horowitz lobby.
As a chronic bibliophile myself, I always like to see what others are reading. This happens to be Andreessen’s personal collection and not surprisingly, the contents are mostly about computers.
On the way out, I stopped at New Enterprise Associates to see if they really do “Dare to Dream Big”, and I dropped off a few Cold Fusion Now stickers to a bemused front desk clerk, as well as a somewhat eager fellow who happened to be standing by the door.
Everyone gets a sticker, ’cause you never know….
Leaving the Silicon Valley, I stopped off at the Silver Crest diner in San Francisco to meet with Gregory Goble, the Cold Fusion Now Poet-in-Residence, and Paul Maher, a cold fusion activist who enjoys emailing institutions and challenging their personnel on clean energy policy.
We had a great conversation, and it was wonderful to meet these talented and committed individuals in person after so many Chip Body encounters (email messages).
Then, I headed north up to Eureka California, my old stomping grounds. I hoped the storage unit sheltering my thousand+ book collection was secure after a wet winter along the North Coast. What a relief to find everything dry and no mold anywhere. Whew.
While in Eureka, I took a long walk on the beach with my Geiger counter, taking radiation samples from seaweed, dead birds, crab shells, a decomposing seal, driftwood, and anything else I could test. I did not have the meter attachment I thought I ordered, so only the audio “beep” signal indicated a positive radiation measurement.
I was really happy to find the seaweed totally clean.
Only a few beeps now and then from lower portions of the dead birds, a few beeps from the decomposing seal. A few driftwood pieces had a little beep or two.
In no sample did I find an elevated, continuous beeping, the sign of higher-than-background radioactivity, which was extremely gratifying.
Of course, the reality of the early 21rst century is this could change at any moment. Whether it’s the thousands of nuclear weapons scattered about the planet on land and sea, or the nuclear power plants on the brink of failure, nuclear holocaust is a scenario much too possible to forget about.
On the beach I met a young man walking his dog who “had all the equipment in his lab” to do cold fusion, but he was skeptical.
I said “Get to it!” and told him to check out our website for more info. I hope he does, ’cause having some active cells in lovely Humboldt County would be a real plus.
On my way back to the Southland, where I’m house-sitting for my uncle in Los Angeles, California, I stopped for a hike in the Humboldt Redwoods State Park, one of the most beautiful and precious stands of giant Redwoods trees on the west coast of the U.S.
I even stopped at the Park Visitor Center, where I was reminded that new energy science has a long and storied history, for here was a display of Charles Kellogg, naturalist and Renaissance man who purportedly put out a flame – on more than one occasion – using sound.
Here’s an NPR piece on Charles Kellogg and a bio from Mendocino Rail History.
Further south in Ukiah, California, I walked by WMEC radio station to drop off some stickers, and ran into two of the station people.
One of them, Govinda, said “Hey can you come back in fifteen minutes? I’ve got to interview somebody right now, but we’ll do you right after.”
“Sure!”, I said.
Within twenty minutes, I had the earphones on and was speaking into the mic about cold fusion. He even interrupted the Amy Goodman Democracy Now! special two-hour broadcast to put me on live.
The two fellows (and presumably all of Mendocino County!) were very interested to hear that cold fusion was alive and well. Apparently, the town of Willits, about twenty miles north of Ukiah, used to have an alternative energy fair where cold fusion scientists spoke!
“I have tapes of that somewhere”, he said.
I was dying to get my hands on those classic recordings. “Hoo boy, you better find em!”
Before I left, I thanked them for their open-mindedness. I have attempted to get environmentalist, Peak Oilers, the Green Party, and plenty of people who should know better, on board with the solution to our energy problems, with no success. Yet these two fellows at the Mendocino Environmental Center want more, and I am sure that I will be back there updating Mendo County again on the positive developments on cold fusion in the future.
So if the website goes in and out over the next week, you can rest assured that we have not been deterred from action. We are gearing up for more and better times to come.
Longtime LENR researcher, now LENR+ advocate (read further to know the difference) operating from Cluj, Romania, Peter Gluck has published an interesting sequence of observations and suggestions on the process of bringing a newly discovered phenomenon into a usable technology for the betterment of humankind, and how those involved in that process may operate to the best, and worst, possible outcomes.
While we don’t always agree, the problems associated with bringing a revolutionary new technology into human civilization are, in part, outlined here with a pointed direction towards solutions, and with sensitivity.
Researcher and Author Peter GluckSECOND PART POSITIVE (about LENR!)
Problem solving is a great art, and, modesty apart, I am a guru of it- (see my 20 Rules of Problem Solving in this Blog.) A practical principle is that a very good solution is applicable for surprisingly broad range of things.
Take in consideration that: “The Good and Evil are Siamese twins”- ergo the Manual, in an adapted form. can be used for other problems too even if these are essentially good, positive, constructive.
In my former writing it was stated that LENR needs a Definition.
At the Panel of LENR theory at ICCF-17 it was minimum of superposition or concordance between the basic ideas of the brightest 5 theorists, their assumptions are different and their logic and mathematics do not intersect. I conclude that prior to a definition, for LENR it will be necessary to have a lot of more mutual understanding, less Babelization, a bit of conceptual harmony, a good inner taxonomy. and even standards. The standards have to be accessible and acceptable for the LENR people but also for those outside the field who take the decisions.
The Modern Mass Manipulation Manual (MMMM) can be used to help to make these tasks more clear…
DIVIDE and Solve
Divide- and the other two basic MMMM verbs/actions are poly-semantic here.
Even huge works, plans, tasks (says the science of Project Management and also the common sense) can be fulfilled if they are divided, in small sub-tasks. Sometimes, this is the unique possibility to make a mega-task manageable. Other times it is a trick to get time till the task becomes obsolete or ceases to be interesting or important.
Wicked problems must be split in small steps, actions and tasks. Tasks have to be smartly segmented. Logical schemes with alternative ways have to be created; careful good planning is essential.
We have to divide the great field of LENR in sub-domains, select those with the best scientific and technological (if!) perspectives and focus on those with the highest expectations. I am using a rather simple approach; when I speak about dividing, the “knife” I am using is technology. I repeat- the main criteria for dividing is: what is good for technology and is potentially commercially valuable, from what cannot lead to a technology and is merely a lab curiosity.
But this thinking too must avoid logical rigidity. Divide ideas in those that are possible, those that can be made possible and those that are not possible. These three categories are overlapping dynamically, will remain in evolution.
If, in LERN you try to divide the things in simple and complicated, then in practice you will state soon that actually they are very complex and amazingly complex.
Everything I know in LENR I have learned from my colleagues via their writings and messages, however today it is a sharp division between my opinion and the LENR opinions of other people. This is due to my focusing on technology and on the future – perhaps most people will consider I am anticipating some facts. Only the future can show if I am too optimistic regarding the present situation of the field. It will also show if I am too pessimistic regarding the technological future (lack of it, actually) of the classic, pre-revolutionary part of LENR.
Yes, when it is about dividing the entire LENR field, it seems only I am speaking about LENR and LENR+ following a technical and scientific revelation caused by the Defkalion process. It is described as:
LENR – unexpected, not controllable nuclear reactions in a hydrogen isotope plus transition metal system.
LENR+ – designed and controllable nuclear reactions in a hydrogen plus transition metal system enhanced by making hydrogen reactive and the metal more receptive.
If this division/classification will be ever accepted, this depends on the industrial success of the Hyperions and of the E-cats– if they become heaters as usual and are sold as other older energy generators.
It is a great pity and delay that this simple and powerful principle “make hydrogen reactive and nickel more receptive” is not recognized; this is in a way present in Piantelli’s process (hydrogen negative ion and nano-clusters of nickel). I bet that Rossi’s E-cats – he had more variants of them thin and fat, are all also based on this generic “best practice” or “core understanding”.Rossi speaks so many times about the necessity to use atomic hydrogen and to apply some special proprietary treatments to the micrometric Ni powder, that this is a case where we can believe him.
It is also regrettable that in the present time, the LENR+ deniers and LENR+ ignoranti are so predominant, the qualitative difference between the classical LENR systems and the fledgling LENR+ technologies remain merely unknown.
By the way, my Open Letter [read] was accepted very politely by the organizers of the ICCF-17, but as far I could state its impact on the participants was zero or less. It could be worse.
However despite the fact that I have predicted the technological failure of palladium and deuterium in wet systems these are continuing to be popular and the pre-formed nanometric complex powders are participating in many scientific orgies with both deuterium and hydrogen.
So it is a sharp division between my opinion and the opinions of my colleagues and friends, however one of the first slogans I created says; “Differences in opinions attract smart people and repel only those who are not so” Sometimes this is almost true, however it sounds fine, isn’t it?
I have now the typical behavior of a theorist speaking my own language, own concepts and very personal presumptions and specific approach; and I am not the fan of anybody, even not of myself because I do not claim my inerrancy.
For a standard we have to analyze the similarities and the differences between LENR and LENR+. In practice only LENR+ as Defkalion says- needs a standard and a definition, and only LENR+ has to be and can be standardized.
CONNECT and Understand
First of all, LENR has to be connected to reality, this is usually a painful and shocking experience and it is especially difficult when it is about the technological reality. Defkalion’s experience (see their paper at ICCF-17) shows that even if LENR is the cause of many natural phenomena, hydrogen and nickel in their “almost” natural-technological state are very far from being ready to initiate/enter a low energy nuclear reaction, have no real chances, and their physico-chemical status has to be radically and deeply transformed.
This explains the extreme difficulty of experimental LENR and shows the way to LENR+ as an energy source.
Connect with pragmatism and disconnect from theoretical idealism, re-connect theory and experiment. Connect as strongly possible, LENR and the Scientific Method (principles of Galileo).
Without this connection any progress in understanding and in making LENR useful, is illusory.
Few people will agree with me that the time is ripe for LENR’s weaning from palladium, therefore I will not say that perhaps it is time to invest less (money, time, hopes) in wet systems (yes I know about Brillouin!), electrolysis, deuterium. The great LENR community is free and democratic, everybody does something resulting from what he/she has already done, likes to do and affords to do. Global LENR management and strategy are inexistent, or, just happen. Perhaps a better connection between the teams could help.
Connect in stronger and more powerful networks of researchers, but include good engineers and materials scientists. Connect to the essence and disconnect from the fuzzy halo of ideas around it. This is a problem of subjectivity and of definitions.
Connect with more and more remote scientific and technical ideas trying to create creative bisociations.
Connect better- smarter, more diplomatically with the press, develop empathy for their points of view and try to convince the journalists that a working LENR is a better source of interesting sellable information than a failed LENR.
Special- National Instruments has connected with the best LENR warriors and has established a very valuable model.
In the near future, the place where LENR+ Truth can be revealed is Defkalion’s on-line real time mass spectrometry plus the other systematic and instrumental analyses- a unique window of opportunity. I hope DGTG will connect with an excellent strategic partner as good in instrumental analysis as National Instruments is in instrumental measurements, for this task of paramount importance. Goddess Athena, help us!
May I add some highly desirable but rather idealistic connections?
Develop more connected professional networks, include engineers, managers, specialists in materials science, IT people, clever businessmen, nice politicians…
Make friends, make demos, make positive noise. Develop empathy for skeptics. Stop infighting. Develop strong solidarity in the LENR community and do not let it to degrade to liquidarity or even gasidarity.
Disconnect from the cursed word “anomalous”; use ‘unexpected’ or ‘surprising’ instead.
LENR is at least as natural as combustion, nuclear fission or hot fusion but much more environmentally friendly as these.
LENR is more concentrated, practical and reliable as solar or wind energy. It has to be developed in harmony with the other forms of energy, connected with these by complementarity not by senseless rivalry.
COMBINE and Enhance
First of all, combine the best modes of thinking for understanding the generative essence and spirit of LENR+.
Combine and unite the good things and eliminate the bad things.
Combine the best theories, more precisely the fragments of truth from these to develop real understanding and ideas for the technological development of this science. Accept that theories if not combined and confronted with solid experimental data are uselessly incomplete…
Accept that only combinations of theories are able to explain LENR that is a very puzzling combination of a broad range of branches of physics and chemistry.
LENR+ uses secret combinations of chemicals that enhance some of the critical (bottleneck) stages of the set of reactions that lead to LENR+. Rossi calls in a populistic manner these combinations “Catalyst” and calls his generator E-cats– a misnomer taking profit from the general sympathy toward the household felines.
The combination of words “cold fusion” is an other misnomer. (for ‘fusion’- ask Steve Krivit) , ‘cold’ is also not true/real. LENR+ is not as hot as Hot Fusion (at millions of degrees) but it is very hot for earthly conditions. It seems that as Defkalion says, LENR+ takes place only in the dynamic vacancies – miniature workshops of Hephaistos with Hell- like conditions.
Conclusion: for the success of LENR, we have to divide it in LENR+ that is both interesting and valuable and LENR classic that is only interesting, we have connect it to good things and disconnect it from harmful things; and, eventually we have to combine what we already know with what we still have to discover- all these in order to create the best energy source of the near future. –Peter Gluck
July 4th here in the States came and went; the celebratory fireworks ringed the air, and the aftermath accounts included one big San Diego display attended by thousands, in which, due to an alleged computer glitch, the would be 20 plus minute sky theatrics, went off all at once. A 20 second burst of everything suddenly exploded simultaneously as people watched in awe and amazement, surprise and confusion. What an exciting start, but…where’s the follow up?
I had just finished reading this post here by Ruby on the Fleischmann/Pons story, and thought about that same sudden like explosion that occurred back in ’89 with their big announcement of Cold Fusion. A flurry of fireworks going off all at once. But eventually, as people waited in anticipation for more, they were told the show’s been cancelled. All just a glitch of sorts in Science, sorry…
I also wondered if the San Diego big bang blowout would be similar to future news of an E-CAT, or other, “suddenly” exploding onto the market. Most of the public remains unaware, the press, both mainstream and alternative, remain silent despite power outage and heat related illness/death on the East Coast of the U.S., (which in turn you would think a natural solution piece story specifically on the emergence of Cold Fusion technology related to home cooling would be a no-brainer).
Since there’s been no gradual mainstream buildup, an explosion of sorts seem likely, but this time with a steady stream of continual fireworks to follow.
As we are in the middle of the year, and working Cold Fusion based units seem to loom near, what are some of the recent updates?
Over a week ago, Defkalion released this update:
Following our absence from the public sphere, the following is a status update:
We are conducting analyses of our materials using XRF and ICP-MS. We are committed that this analysis be done with the highest standards. To ensure these high standards, we are using multiple laboratories in Europe. When those results are available, we shall present them in the appropriate forum.
We also have designed and are operating a fully instrumented flow calorimeter to measure the power production of our reactor. Outside scientists and engineers are measuring the input power as well as our flow calorimeter output performance. All these results will be presented when we are confident that they will withstand the scrutiny demanded by our own interests in product development, and the scrutiny of our customers.
We thank you for your continued interest in our challenging and important work load.
Meanwhile Andrea Rossi claims to have 20 units up and running, 600 degrees celcius, which is part of a 42 day test, with high temperature results to be reported in the coming weeks. EC3 speculates it would be just in time for the “17th International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF-17) scheduled for August 12-17 in Daejon, Korea”. A showdown of sorts could occur as EC3 also noted that Defkalion would report results there as well.
The two things noted as far as Rossi updates go is the report coming out mentioned above, which will seem to provide further promising news, and apparently will be validated by the customer with included photos (“Yes, we are working very strongly, in this very hot Summer. Important news are arriving.” A.R. – July 9th), and then also the certification issue, which seems to be the wick needed to be lit to ignite the potential fireworks, at least as far as the U.S. domestic E-Cat models are concerned.
You have said that your invention is undergoing a certification process in both USA and EU. If either one of this processes is delayed will that affect the product launch worldwide?
Like if the certification process is delayed in USA but successful in Europe will your European business go ahead (and not wait for the processes in USA to be completed)??
1- yes, for the domestic E-Cats, while for the industrial we are very close to be all set
2- If one certification goes through it eases the certification elsewhere, based on the existing conventions.
Warm Regards,
A.R.
July 9th, 2012.
Readers at ECat World recently participated in a poll on who they anticipated would be the first to set off the ‘works with a MASS MARKET working unit. The top 3 thus far:
1. Leonardo Corp (Rossi) (436 votes)
2. No one. (155 votes)
3. Defkalion (148 votes)
Followed by Brillouin, Blacklight, PlasmERG, Jet Energy, and Nichenergy, in that order.
On another front, it seems the potential fireworks are being taken seriously by the petroleum industry, at least a little more publicly, as a recent editorial emerged in The Journal of Petroleum Technology, outlining LENR as a threat. This was noted as a comment by a reader at E-Cat World prompting this entry, and the actual editorial can be read here.
So we continue to wait, monitor, and wade through the continuation of more tests/reports, uncertain certification processes, and unknown customers to verify; meanwhile it is announced today the U.S. breaks a new heat record for the first half of 2012, while also we have“Dr. Doom”, Nouriel Roubini reporting today that his prediction for likely global economic collapse earlier this year, is perfectly on track to occur.
As always it’s hard to fathom how the timing will play itself out as far as the various Collapse scenarios go, and the actual on the market emergence of Cold Fusion technology taking hold.
From the “Groundling-believers of the Blog-O-Sphere”, we the unvetted, the unmarked many (or possibly few as we too are uncertain as to our numbers) devoted to the events and rumors of the day concerning, LENR, LANR, cold-fusion or what name you may apply to the phenomena, send you salutations. Your scientific endeavors are close to our hearts in that we too hope you may, some day soon, bear forth the truth concerning the evolution of Anomalous Energy Generation.
Fear not. We, the groundlings, the uninvited, are not here to storm your stage and disrupt the proceedings, nor to make demands for more and better evidence; nor are we here to engage in a loud, rancorous battle of the believers-vs.-skeptics here, before your alarmed eyes. We are, in fact, not even here.
We, the groundling-believers are simultaneously nowhere and everywhere as we fill the ether of the net. Our communications, though they may capture the attention for a time as brief as that of the life of a mayfly some interested few of our fellow groundlings, we too are in a sense here among you, and we are hopeful to hear the good news.
We, the believers, the groundlings, hope that someday soon you will reveal the facts, the whole facts and nothing but the facts and so to end for us this interminably long and tortuous suspension of our judgment as to the reality of the phenomena. We implore you: give us evidence and give us peace.
We, the believers, ultimately hope from you affirmative results, and penultimately the production of some device capable of producing the clean, abundant energy that might lift us, the mere groundlings, to greater and greener abundances.
We, the believers, the groundlings, lift our faces upward, however tremulously and briefly, into the face of a hope for a brighter future for all.
And though we are mere groundlings, we wish you the best and success in your scientific endeavors be they positive or null.
We undergo periodic ”paradigm shifts” rather than solely progressing in a linear and continuous way. These paradigm shifts open up new approaches to understanding what was considered invalid before. This implies that the notion of truth, at any given moment, cannot be established solely by objective criteria and is defined by consensus reality.
For instance, most people’s notion of the truth is the “Scarcity paradigm.” An example of the Scarcity paradigm is the belief that while food production expands linearly, population grows exponentially.
In other words, comparing worldwide population growth rates to global resource consumption rates it seems clear that we are running out of resources (and time). Right now there is almost seven billion people and by mid-century it will probably be around ten billion.
We are running out of food, water, fish, and oil to satisfy this rapidly growing population.
Since 2005 the price of wheat, corn, and rice has more than tripled, which reflects a dwindling of global food stocks. We are already farming around 80% of the arable land with reports on climate change showing crop production declining by ten to twenty percent in the next ten years. By 2030 demand for food is expected to increase 50%.
Only half a percent of the world’s water is fresh, and many aquifers have been nearly pumped dry, so demand will far outstrip the supply in the next 30 years.
Bottom trawling destroys about 6 million square miles of sea floor each year, and according to most projections we will be the generation that will run out of wild fish.
But worse is running out of oil because the modern world was built with it and runs on it. It takes about ten calories of oil to produce one calorie of food. Around half of the fuel consumed is oil product and more than half of that oil is used for transportation, a very fast growing sector of the world economy. It is estimated that demand for oil will increase 50% by 2025.
On the other hand, oil production has been flat since 2005. Peak oil, the point when maximum oil extraction has been reached (after which it will go into terminal decline) is near.
Such facts bring about cynicism, pessimism, and despair. Most people believe that the world is going downhill fast and there is nothing anyone can do about it. The hole is too deep to climb out of, and any information that confirms that suspicion will be remembered, while conflicting data will not even register – a confirmation bias.
Furthermore, there is a direct link between imagination and perception. We are saturated with “if it bleeds it leads” news reports. Our brain evolved prioritizing immediate threats, and while many dangers are probabilistic, our mind can’t easily differentiate between the improbable and the likely.
This knee jerk things-are-going-down-hill moaning pessimism is incredible from people living amid luxury and security that their ancestors would have died for. Innovation has played a huge role in averting disaster.
For instance, mankind was reaching the limit of our ability to feed ourselves when early 20th century chemists invented a technology to produce fertilizer. The Haber process sustains one-third of the population today, and it is estimated that half the protein within human beings is made of nitrogen that was originally fixed by this technology.
Optimism rather than pessimism is a sounder basis for a paradigm accessing reality. A true measurement of something’s worth is the hours it takes to acquire it, and we undoubtedly have more free time and more ways to spend it than our ancestors.
We’ve seen enormous progress in the last couple of centuries. Today, most poverty-stricken Americans have a TV, telephone, electricity, running water, a refrigerator, and indoor plumbing, luxuries the richest men on the planet didn’t have one hundred years ago.
In particular, there is a new clean, very very cheap, and super abundant energy technology emerging called “Low Energy Nuclear Reaction” (LENR for short). It uses hydrogen and nickel to produce heat. No nuclear materials are used for fuel, and none are produced.
“Over 2 decades with over 100 experiments worldwide indicate LENR is real, much greater than chemical…” —Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center
“Total replacement of fossil fuels for everything but synthetic organic chemistry.” —Dr. Joseph M. Zawodny, NASA
Unfortunately, the Scarcity paradigm is preventing people from believing this. The real possibility of electricity too cheap to meter is dismissed due to a confirmation bias. People’s minds can’t readily imagine this new energy technology being real, so they perceive that it is impossible.
Since any new technology needs investment for research and development, this Scarcity paradigm is a self-fulfilling prophesy. While there are new technologies emerging to address a score of scarcity issues like clean water, food availability, sewage disposal, security, housing, communication, education, information, environmental degradation, and transportation, many hinge on the abundance of cheap energy.
To summarize, most people believe that the world is going downhill fast and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Our mind can’t easily differentiate between the improbable and the likely. The tragic result is that we have difficulty imagining things getting better, which leads to the knee jerk rejection of likely solutions. If we could make the shift from the Paradigm of Scarcity, which so many people have so much invested in, to the Paradigm of Abundance, which seems too-good-to-be-true, a positive feedback will occur, where every new innovation will speed the next.
Our future will be so bright we’ll have to wear shades. The only catch is that we have to believe.
