We like to see ourselves as marching off into the future, heroic in our stance, “going were no one has gone before.” But the fact is that we go into the future backwards, with at best a dirty, cracked hand mirror to guide us. We do not directly look into the future, we can only look into the past and get a dirty, clouded reflection of the future. We know where we have been, but we have an imperfect grasp of where we are going. We can plan or predict based on the past performance. That is our rear view mirror. But we don’t know what is relevant to the future in the present or the past, and our awareness of life, the world and things in general is usually sorely lacking.
Usually, when you look at something chronologically, you look at in the past, present, and then future. But, the way we really look at things is first in the present with a dim awareness of where we “are,” then the past which is where we have been, and only then into the future, which is where we are going, and which is seen but dimly through the filter of the past.
This cloudy mirror works through reason and rationality, there may be other levels of interaction with the world, such as instinct, intuition, artistry, etc. With the mirror, we are re-acting to the world, in an imperfect way. With instinct etc, we may have something more immediate, and at times glimpses of something divine, where true immediacy occurs, the event and the “reaction” are simultaneous. My point here is, is that this cloudy, dirty mirror is not the only way we participate in the world. It is though, the way that is important for calculating and guesstimating the future.
Plato believed that a navigator has a particular kind of knowledge, he could get you across a river, what he could not tell you is whether it was a good idea for you to go across the river, or stay on this side. The navigator’s knowledge does not extend that far. A carpenter uses artistry (techne) to build a house, what he cannot tell you knowledgeably is whether or not buying a house is a good idea. The government can give us all kinds of incentives for house ownership, but the fact is that we still cannot know it as a good idea. For some people it worked out, for others it did not, but even for the people for whom it worked out, what they had when they made that decision was not knowledge, but opinion which turned out to be true. They got it right, but they could not have known all the variables that went into the equation of whether or not it was a good idea.
It should be understood that for Plato there is false opinion, true opinion and then knowledge. In Plato, the bar for (true) knowledge as opposed to right opinion is quite high. Knowledge is something that is rock solid, that will not let you down. The impressions we get from the dirty, shaking hand mirror giving us the image of the future are not deserving of the certainty that Plato advocates with his term “knowledge.”
In my own rearview mirror, I don’t know if cold fusion will be a good thing. I also don’t know if it will be a bad thing. However, while I don’t know whether cold fusion will be good or bad,I do believe that it will happen, it will be a force in our future. How close that future is, or how far away, I am not sure but it does sound like we are coming to a historical watershed. It sounds like technologically cold fusion is just around the corner, but societally and culturally there are still obstacles which are obscure but nonetheless there.
Caution, objects in the mirror may be closer than they seem (or they may farther away). We have a problem with getting a perspective on cold fusion. Ultimately, we cannot estimate how big its effect will become. And when it gets that big, we will have difficulties in imagining how things were ever otherwise.
We may wish and think of only good things for cold fusion, but the law of unintended consequences will probably in some fashion or another nip us on the backside as it does on all new technologies. We should expect the unexpected, and not cry when the check comes due. We will learn how to live with the new costs, as we do with the new benefits. We have done it before, we have always done it with the introductions of new technologies, and we can do it again. There are changes that happen in human life, but there are also constants like how we adapt to change, and that is good too.
The graph of the Oil Age shows a thin blip in geological time with an Era of Cold Fusion for the future – and a “little” space between them.
The transition from dirty fossil fuels and today’s dangerous nuclear power plants into clean cold fusion will entail the dismantling of an entire infrastructure core to the economy and culture of the world, and particularly for the Western nations.
The scale and reach are staggering.
What would a transition narrative look like? Edmund Storms, LENR researcher and author of The Science of Low Energy Nuclear Reaction has thought about these issues for two decades, and has some compelling scenarios.
We spoke with Dr. Storms this past August and this is what he had to say on “Transition”.
The spate of “mainstream” press on Andrea Rossi’s Energy Catalyzer has brought new pubic attention to the field of cold fusion/LENR/LENR research.
Some of the recent articles include:
Wired U.K. 2011/10/06 Cold Fusion rears its head as ‘E-Cat’ research promises to change the world. [link]
Oilprice.com 2011/10/13 Are we on the Brink of an Energy Revolution: Andrea Rossi to Build 1MW Power Plant. [link]
Computerworld 2011/10/14 Cheap Power: An overnight revolution. [link]
Forbes 2011/10/17 Hello Cheap Energy, Hello Brave New World [link]
Even beyond the excess-heat effect between the forms of hydrogen and various metals that cold fusion research seeks to exploit, the entire field of new-energy, including the generation of power from magnets, zero point and other sources, and that Sterling Allan of Pure Energy Systems has cataloged, is receiving more deserving eyeballs.
In his Commentary on Cheap power: An overnight revolution, Mr. Allan noted the “favorable coverage” the article in Computerworld and echoed by Forbes, gave to Mr. Rossi’s E-Cat demonstration. He also seized upon one of the links in the article to The Singularity is Near, a website based upon the work of Ray Kurzweil and his book The Singularity is Near.
The website has a number of charts based on sourced data that all support the idea that humanity is nearing a point of singularity, a bifurcation point if you will, where a profound change in our civilization will occur. Using data given for the Mass Use of Inventions, where mass-use is defined as use by one-quarter of the population, Mr. Allan extrapolated the time it would take to have a mass use of cold fusion, after its first commercialization. His conclusion was that it might take about 3 years to disseminate the technology to one-quarter of the population.
Having read previous estimates of ten years by other informed analysts, I read Mr. Allan’s conclusion with great enthusiasm, tinged with disappointment. As one of my friends and music mentor Jack Wright wrote, “I want everything and I want it now.”
Concerns for safety are at the heart of many of the lengthy timeframes for adoption of cold fusion technology. However I fear our planet can’t wait 10 years for clean energy, and to stretch my vision even three years hence is to view a dark chasm, where economic and ecological devastation, famine and war are the only reference in sight.
Yet between bouts of doom-and-gloom, we always return ‘cheerful and optimistic’ (a la Jayne Cortez), and it appears distinctly possible that 1.75 billion people worldwide could be using cold fusion technology much sooner than three years. But how can I justify that fantastic belief to the world of men?
Without trying to “one-up” Mr. Allan, as it was his inspiration that led to this chart, here the data is fitted (using the wonderful free and open-source Geogebra) to three exponential curves and, in my opinion, gives visual-space credibility to the mass use of cold fusion in one year or less after it is commercially introduced.
A first exponential fit for all the data points does not improve the timeline, as the thin, black curve shows.
But notice the inventions listed; the telephone, radio, and television are all the innovative tools of communication based on analog technology; the computer, the mobile phone, and the Internet are all innovative tools of communication based on digital technology.
These are two distinctly different types of technology.
Fitting an exponential curve to just the points B, C, and D representing the analog inventions gives the green curve.
Fitting an exponential curve to the points E, F, and G, representing the digital devices gives the blue curve. Looking at the year 2012 on the blue curve, we could project that the next innovative technology, one of energy, could be adopted by the population in about one year.
“The reality is, while there’s immensely more interest, it still hasn’t hit the major media, the New York Times, Time magazine, things like that. If Rossi does what he is planning to do, namely run a 1 Megawatt source for a couple of months, then, it is going to be big news.
You look back in history, 40 some days after the Fleischmann/Pons announcement 23rd of March in 1989, the covers of Time, Newsweek, and US News and World Report I think it was, all had cold fusion on them. It could be a repeat of that if Rossi comes through.“ —David J. Nagel
If it took 40 days to be on the covers of major magazines in 1989, it may only take a week in 2012, and that lengthy stretch is only because the hardware realities of printed matter require a lead-time. We know the information about any new energy technology in use will be distributed everywhere on Earth, as well as in orbit, in a matter of moments through the Noosphere.
In many systems, past behavior does not predict future behavior. Likewise, it should be clear by now that complex mathematical modeling does nothing to clarify the elements of our financial system, nor do smooth functions describe the bumpy reality of human technology. Math is a magic that hypnotizes men’s minds. We only accept these gross approximations as a rough estimate of one possibility.
There are many factors to take into account, including unquantifiable ones.
A new company called Cold Fusion Energy, Inc has procured a booth at the World Green Energy Symposium to be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA this upcoming Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday October 19, 20, and 21.
They will be handing out information about LENR/LANR/cold fusion science and technology from a “prime location” at Booth #5 on the floor of the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Included in the giveaways will be free Cold Fusion Now stickers and printed materials compliments of Infinite-Energy magazine, a continuing supporter of cold fusion outreach events.
Attending the Symposium will be scientists and researchers involved in green energy, sustainability experts, industry leaders and top government officials from countries around the globe. Representing the cold fusion field will be Peter Hagelstein, electrical engineer at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and cold fusion theorist. Joining him are Georgy Miley, a nuclear and electrical engineer from University of Illinois, and Xing Zhong Li, a fusion physicist from Tsinghua University in Beijing, China and current President of the International Society of Condensed Matter Nuclear Science ISCMN.
All three are scheduled as speakers and have long-time experience in LENR research, including attendance and presentations at the ISCMN conferences where new-energy researchers from around the world gather to share results of their innovative work. The most recent ICCF-16 was held in Chenai, India this past February. ICCF-17 will be held in Daejeon, South Korea next August 2012.
The Symposium agenda has Peter Hagelstein leading the discussion “Cold Fusion” on Day 2 Thursday October 20 at 3:30PM Eastern time. The talks will be recorded and available on the Cold Fusion Energy, Inc blog afterwards.
Keith Owens, the CEO of Cold Fusion Energy, Inc. will also be speaking at the event. A passionate activist for a new energy paradigm, Mr. Owens recently asked the Department of Energy DOE to clarify their policy towards cold fusion research. The response, from the Office of Fusion Science, the hot fusion group, misstated the conclusion of the DOE’s 2004 review of the LENR field saying “that review reached essentially the same conclusion as the 1989 review.”
The 1989 review recommended against funding LENR/LANR/cold fusion research. However, the 2004 DOE review claimed “The nearly unanimous opinion of the reviewers was that funding agencies should entertain individual,well-designed proposals for experiments that address specific scientific issues relevant to the question of whether or not there is anomalous energy production in Pd/D systems, or whether or not D-D fusion reactions occur at energies on the order of a few eV.”
To date, not one proposal has been funded by the DOE.
While the Review states “The reviewers believed that this field would benefit from the peer-review processes associated with proposal submission to agencies and paper submission to archival journals”, conventional science journals refusal to publish cold fusion research is based on the DOE’s lack of recognition of the field, a veritable catch-22.
Mr. Owens, who says “Cold fusion is here, and needs to be taken seriously”, formed Cold Fusion Energy, Inc as a vehicle to liaison between scientists and engineers involved in cold fusion research and the business community in an effort to fund development of clean new-energy technology. Their presence at the World Green Energy Symposium is their first official exhibit, and is a result of a press contact encountered at the 2011 LANR/CF Colloquium at MIT held this past June.
If you are interested in supporting Cold Fusion Energy, Inc.’s mission, contact Keith Owens here.
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A new effort to address both the ensuing global economic meltdown and an impending energy revolution sparked by Andrea A. Rossi‘s E-Cat technology has been initiated by the organisation Xecnet, Ltd[visit] of the U.K.
According to their website, Xecnet is a corporate consultancy that implements the “GEM (Global Enterprise Model) in organizations”, where “company staff can learn to apply a genuinely leaderless approach in their organizations – putting the needs of all of the members of the organization at the centre of their attention in such a way that new and vital energies are released and real operational efficiencies are made.”
Xecnet is also a publisher and their most recent offering is a book called Rossi’s E-Cat: Free Energy, Free Money, Free People by John Michell, which “tells the story of how this energy source was discovered, developed by inventor Andrea Rossi, how it challenges modern science and what the consequences for mankind could be. This is a discovery which heralds nothing less than the start of a new era – the year 0 PR (Post-Rossi).”
In this book the proposed new economic paradigm based on energy is described. Energy will back a Human Value Unit, or HVU where one HVU is equivalent to 400 Joules of energy.
I first heard about a monetary system based on energy credits through the work of M. King Hubbert, but never really understood how it would function in actuality. Having not yet read the book by John Michell, I asked Raymond Aitken, gatherer of news at Scoop.it’seCat economics and friend to Xecnet‘s board of directors, to provide some background.
Mr. Aitken has “been interested in complementary currencies for some time” but only recently, through discussions with author of the book ‘Rossi’s eCat‘, that he “realized the fundamental link between energy and money, and how such an energy production system could represent a transformational paradigm-shift to a ‘new world’ of human possibility.”
I first asked Mr. Aitken, how is one Human Value Unit equated to 400 Joules of energy? He replied:
“Firstly, concerning the dominant fiat monetary system:
The present fiat monetary system creates claims on real goods and services in the economy without any real and measurable linkage to the true capacity and output of the real wealth creation process (based on available natural resources, including energy, and human know-how i.e. technology). This means that there cannot be any discipline or means to guarantee that the magnitude of such arbitrary claims (the money supply) will match a corresponding increase in real goods and services.”
“This together with the fact that such fiat money is created as debt that is loaned at compound (exponential) interest means that the Western fiat (fractional-reserve banking) system is inherently and structurally inflationary, as well as non-transparent – and therefore open to manipulation and fraud, as well as requiring spiralling exponential economic growth, to create more debt-money in order to pay the interest on previous debt-money.”
“Inflation (currency debasement, or “legal counterfeiting”) is both an invisible tax of government and the large scale fraud of private financial institutions. Interest amounts to the massive and hidden transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, leading to debt-slavery.”
“Although the conventional economic text books describe the functions of the dominant monetary system in terms of “a medium of exchange and store of value”, it is much more used as a tool of empire (centralization of power and war) and speculation (>95% of global currency movements are for speculative purposes). This monetary system was created to serve and profit from war, including economic warfare (commodity dumping etc). Being devoid of human values, this system maximizes profit on the basis of human misery and deprivation (starvation, violence, destruction, enslavement, privatization of the commons – genes, patents, money, traditional knowledge, seeds, medicine, etc).”
“Some background about the link between energy and money:
Energy is what underwrites every economic and ecological process. It is the foundation of all human wealth creation. Since money can be anything which is representative of value that can be traded for a wide range of goods and services across geographical areas, then energy itself can be used as money.”
“Unlike fiat currencies, an energy currency is a genuine commodity in universal demand, which represents the value of work already done as well as the potential of work which can be done. As a scientific unit of measure, there can be no manipulation of its value over time or place, and therefore no speculation. It can be used to scientifically stabilize and rationalize the economic process at every level. The value of commodities, services and goods can fluctuate in relation to the standard of value of an energy currency, but those fluctuations will not be speculatively driven on the monetary side (as is the case with the dominant fiat system), any fluctuations will be driven by real factors of cost and demand.”
“An energy currency easily translates into energy accounting, and therefore provides a more accurate and complete analysis of economic output and resource consumption, so it would not be possible to exclude the full human-social and ecological costs of any economic activity in the accounts, as it the case with the present system. Since no one nation or corporation can “own” energy as a currency, it will represent the first genuine international and non-political monetary system.”
“Why 1 HVU = 400 Joules of Energy:
The Human Value Unit (HVU) as a monetary measure of value was first proposed by a man called Harold who has since died. Harold’s purpose was to address the fact that our monetary system had become completely divorced from human values, and his proposition was to anchor the monetary standard of value on the daily food requirement of a human being, so that the behavior and decisions of users of money would be influenced by this humane-based measure.”
“Strange as it seems, complementary currencies have already proven how the innate values of a currency can dramatically influence the behavior of its users, even if they are unaware of monetary technicalities. Perhaps because the circulation of money represents the actualization of human relationships, then the way in which the money is created and put into circulation will color those relationships (competitive vs. cooperative etc). After much research Harold eventually settled on a scientific value of energy that was equivalent the daily human food requirement – 400 Joules.”
“The concept of the HVU relative to the creation of a complementary energy-backed global monetary system, which will belong to its users (and not to a private banking cartel that controls central government) – “a currency by the people for the people” is still at an early stage of development. We are therefore in the process of developing a global network of people who are committed to harnessing the monetary implications of the eCat to create a new money and finance system based on energy that can serve humanity, which includes restoring the ecological integrity of the planet.” —Raymond Aitken ”
In a practical sense, I asked how one would spend the HVUs? And when I spent them all, how would I get more?
“The HVUs do not need to be spent”, wrote Mr. Aitken, “they are a monetary-energy equivalence, when you buy an Ecat at say $500, then the accounting is in HVUs but you need to spend dollars to buy the HVUs which are then used to purchase the eCat.”
“Because the HVUs are based on energy-systems bought, as the value of the US Dollar goes down against energy, as it must due to Quantitative Easing (QE) etc, the value of dollars diminishes relative to the HVUs, and therefore you will need more dollars to buy the HVUs. You can always go online and buy more – we are putting a HVU-based online banking system in place.”
“Given that the technological and economic implications of the eCat are “paradigm-shifting”, the understanding of us all is necessarily in a flux of evolution, which is why Xecnet is organizing a first seminar in London this November. We need to bring together experts in economics and energy science to create a new economic approach that is grounded in genuine science, and not based on the obtuse quackery of the fraudulent monetary magicians. (It was the last chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, who said “if you can understand what I am saying, I’m not making myself clear”!).”
Mr. Aitken continued with some personal reflections:
“Perhaps the most important and urgent matter is how can a complementary currency approach provide a way of financing the commercialization of Rossi’s technology? If the commercialization of Rossi’s technology depends on the corporate fiat monetary system, then it’s availability for the greater good of humankind could be distorted, in accordance with the narrow commercial and political interests of this ‘corporatocracy’.”
“We can imagine creating an investment fund for the commercialization of Rossi’s technology using a “crowd funding” approach, which is what Xecnet are trying to do with their planetpay.com site.”
“At this stage they only intend to gather pledges, to see if the financial potential from small investors around the world is large enough to represent a sufficient financial partner for Rossi, so that he can at least have a stronger negotiating position with prospective corporate investors, and if possible, to be able to commercialize his technology independently of corporate finance on a more equitable basis for the common good of humanity.”
“At some point the pledges would be converted to actual deposits of fiat money, which could be used to manufacture and distribute the first generation of eCats. During this initial stage, any HVU’s (as a complementary currency) would be backed by the fiat money held on deposit for orders worldwide. Since people would be “buying” HVU’s with fiat currency, and since the standard of value of the HVU’s would be fixed to energy (400 Joules), it would not be subject to inflation in the fiat monetary system.”
“Fiat money deposited on account, in exchange of HVU’s would act as a “store of value” (in competition to commodities like gold), which might bring in more and larger deposits of fiat money during the first phase of the fund. The ideal for this phase one would be the accumulation of a sufficiently large investment fund in fiat currency to commercialize Rossi’s technology worldwide, independently of the conventional banking system.”
“Once Rossi’s industrial eCats are commercially available, we can imagine using the same fund to establish energy production enterprises on a cooperative basis. Each energy production enterprise would serve a local-regional economic area, and would represent the phase of creating a genuine energy-based complementary monetary system to serve the specific needs and potential of any given local-regional economy, in accordance with human values and local ecological integrity.”
“The energy production enterprise would also function as a new type of local economic development bank, which would put into circulation an interest-free energy-backed currency to facilitate trade and provide working capital for local enterprises (thereby generating work), as well as the creation of investment finance (equity-based) for the development of new or existing enterprises and maintenance or creation of social capital (education and training) and material capital (physical assets and infrastructures).”
“To avoid any conflict of interest, this “bank” would be owned by its users (cooperative legal structure), who would appoint professionals to manage it. We can imagine the establishment and operation of such an “energy production bank” using a financial strategy based on the historical example of the Wara  energy monetization approach.”
“By the local energy production enterprise paying its workers and local suppliers in an energy-backed complementary currency, these monetary (exchange) units would enter into local economic circulation. With a demurrage charge on the demand-accounts above a certain level, HVU’s would be transferred to saving-accounts, which would create the basis of the finance part of the system. The HVU would only exist as an electronic currency, and would circulate via mobile phone, smart card and Internet devices. The required transactional platform already exists as an open-source software, called Cyclos.”
Ambitious? Most certainly.
I can’t say I completely understand energy units yet, but I certainly look forward to learning more.
What’s most encouraging is the wave of participation among peoples around the globe in response to the E-Cat demonstrations. Andrea Rossi has ignited something much more than a thermal energy device; he’s started a transformation of minds that are now busily preparing for a new kind of world, a world where people work together cooperatively based on abundant clean energy for all.
There will be fits and starts; there will be successes and failures. But, like the best strategies for long-term investing, we will ignore the noise, and focus our efforts on the big picture: there is now an open door and we can see a path forward.
We have a new clean energy technology.
Let’s not fixate on the deficiencies, but strengthen and raise the positives.
Cold Fusion Now!
 The ‘Wara’ system was implemented in a small town in Germany in the early 1920’s. At the time, Germany was experiencing a complete collapse of their national currency with the value plummeting to near worthlessness. During this time, Dr. Hebecker, an owner of a coal mine in the town of Schwanenkirchen, convinced his workers to accept 90% of their wages in a complementary currency called ‘Wara,’ or he would be forced to close the mine. He agreed initially to provide food that they could purchase with their ‘Wara,’ which means ‘commodity money’ in German. He also stated that the money was backed by the coal inventory. The Wara itself was paper money that also incorporated the small monthly stamp fee to prevent hoarding and encourage circulation. The Wara was immediately successful in saving the coal mine and in saving the entire town of Schwanenkirchen. Over the next several years, the circulation of the Wara spread dramatically throughout Germany and over 2000 corporations began using the new complementary currency. However, the central bank considered the Wara to be too successful and even thought it was an inflationary threat although its value was tied to the value of coal. In October 1931, the Minister of Finance declared that the Wara was illegal thus ending the success.
Rossi’s E-cat: Free Energy, Free Money, Free People by John Michell from publisher Xecnet