The spate of “mainstream” press on Andrea Rossi’s Energy Catalyzer has brought new pubic attention to the field of cold fusion/LENR/LENR research.
Some of the recent articles include:
Even beyond the excess-heat effect between the forms of hydrogen and various metals that cold fusion research seeks to exploit, the entire field of new-energy, including the generation of power from magnets, zero point and other sources, and that Sterling Allan of Pure Energy Systems has cataloged, is receiving more deserving eyeballs.
In his Commentary on Cheap power: An overnight revolution, Mr. Allan noted the “favorable coverage” the article in Computerworld and echoed by Forbes, gave to Mr. Rossi’s E-Cat demonstration. He also seized upon one of the links in the article to The Singularity is Near, a website based upon the work of Ray Kurzweil and his book The Singularity is Near.
The website has a number of charts based on sourced data that all support the idea that humanity is nearing a point of singularity, a bifurcation point if you will, where a profound change in our civilization will occur. Using data given for the Mass Use of Inventions, where mass-use is defined as use by one-quarter of the population, Mr. Allan extrapolated the time it would take to have a mass use of cold fusion, after its first commercialization. His conclusion was that it might take about 3 years to disseminate the technology to one-quarter of the population.
Having read previous estimates of ten years by other informed analysts, I read Mr. Allan’s conclusion with great enthusiasm, tinged with disappointment. As one of my friends and music mentor Jack Wright wrote, “I want everything and I want it now.”
Concerns for safety are at the heart of many of the lengthy timeframes for adoption of cold fusion technology. However I fear our planet can’t wait 10 years for clean energy, and to stretch my vision even three years hence is to view a dark chasm, where economic and ecological devastation, famine and war are the only reference in sight.
Yet between bouts of doom-and-gloom, we always return ‘cheerful and optimistic’ (a la Jayne Cortez), and it appears distinctly possible that 1.75 billion people worldwide could be using cold fusion technology much sooner than three years. But how can I justify that fantastic belief to the world of men?
Without trying to “one-up” Mr. Allan, as it was his inspiration that led to this chart, here the data is fitted (using the wonderful free and open-source Geogebra) to three exponential curves and, in my opinion, gives visual-space credibility to the mass use of cold fusion in one year or less after it is commercially introduced.
A first exponential fit for all the data points does not improve the timeline, as the thin, black curve shows.
But notice the inventions listed; the telephone, radio, and television are all the innovative tools of communication based on analog technology; the computer, the mobile phone, and the Internet are all innovative tools of communication based on digital technology.
These are two distinctly different types of technology.
Fitting an exponential curve to just the points B, C, and D representing the analog inventions gives the green curve.
Fitting an exponential curve to the points E, F, and G, representing the digital devices gives the blue curve. Looking at the year 2012 on the blue curve, we could project that the next innovative technology, one of energy, could be adopted by the population in about one year.
In a recent interview with James Martinez on his Ca$h Flow show, long-time LENR researcher David J. Nagel had this to say:
“The reality is, while there’s immensely more interest, it still hasn’t hit the major media, the New York Times, Time magazine, things like that. If Rossi does what he is planning to do, namely run a 1 Megawatt source for a couple of months, then, it is going to be big news.
You look back in history, 40 some days after the Fleischmann/Pons announcement 23rd of March in 1989, the covers of Time, Newsweek, and US News and World Report I think it was, all had cold fusion on them. It could be a repeat of that if Rossi comes through.“ —David J. Nagel
If it took 40 days to be on the covers of major magazines in 1989, it may only take a week in 2012, and that lengthy stretch is only because the hardware realities of printed matter require a lead-time. We know the information about any new energy technology in use will be distributed everywhere on Earth, as well as in orbit, in a matter of moments through the Noosphere.
In many systems, past behavior does not predict future behavior. Likewise, it should be clear by now that complex mathematical modeling does nothing to clarify the elements of our financial system, nor do smooth functions describe the bumpy reality of human technology. Math is a magic that hypnotizes men’s minds. We only accept these gross approximations as a rough estimate of one possibility.
There are many factors to take into account, including unquantifiable ones.
Cold Fusion Now!
Supporting Links
Cheap Power: An overnight revolution – Commentary by Sterling Allan from Pure Energy Systems
Singularity is Near http://www.singularity.com/
Geogebra www.geogebra.org
Sterling Allan on Ca$h Flow: “It’s an act of revolution to support free energy.” portions of James Martinez interview on April 26, 2011 transcribed by Ruby Carat April 28, 2011
David J. Nagel interview on Ca$h Flow: “LENR global impact will be historic.” portions of James Martinez interview on Sept. 1, 2011 transcribed by Ruby Carat September 2, 2011
Noosphere from Wikipedia
Cheerful and Optimistic by Jayne Cortez and the Firespitters from www.jaynecortez08.com